The pen is mightier than the sword

Malaysia Today, Kuala Lumpur
02 January 2006


The pen is mightier than the sword

Raja Petra Kamarudin

This is what The Star reported on 28 December 2005:

"Some four million eligible voters, which forms almost a third of the
country’s voters, have not registered themselves with the Election
Commission. Its chairman Tan Sri Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahman said, so
far, only 10.3 million had registered as voters while another four
million had not.

This is what Jason Lee Miller said on 27 December 2005 in an article
called ‘One billion web users need better websites’:

Some time this year, the number of Internet users reached one billion
-- billion with a ‘B’. If you count to one billion at one number per
second, it would take you over 31 years to finish. It has taken the
Internet 36 years to count that high, says web usability expert and
former Sun Microsystems engineer Dr. Jakob Nielsen.

The next 10 years will bring the second billion, growing at an annual
rate of 18 percent, and will include unprecedented numbers from Asia
and senior citizens -- and that has huge implications in e-commerce.

Statistically, says Nielsen, the one-billionth online user was a 24-
year-old woman in Shanghai. Only 23 percent come from North America,
leaving 24 percent in Europe and 36 percent in Asia. By 2015, though
accounting for nearly one-third of e-commerce, North Americans will
consist of only 15 percent of Internet users."

And this is what the National Registration Department told The Sun on
27 December 2005:

"About 1.2 million Malaysians have yet to apply for the MyKad smart
card identification for which the deadline for free application is
Saturday.

Deputy Home Minister Datuk Tan Chai Ho said no extension would be
given after Dec 31 for those wanting to apply for free.

"From next year onwards, you will have to pay for the smart cards.
However, the charges have yet to be fixed.

"It will probably be between RM20 and RM50," he told The Sun.

He added Home Minister Datuk Azmi Khalid was expected to make an
announcement on the MyKad fees next week.

Tan said to date about 16.8 million Malaysians out of the 18 million
eligible have either converted to or applied for MyKad."

Yes, those are the statistics.

There are more than 10 million registered voters now. If all eligible
voters register, it would increase to more than 14 million. The
Election Commission is currently conducting a study to explore the
possibility of online registration to rope in those 4 million
eligible voters yet to register as voters.

Note the increase. And note that the Election Commission is
attempting to now use the internet to register new voters (which
means the EC is confident these voters are internet users).

In the November 1999 general election, the number of registered
voters was only around 8 million while in March 2004 it increased 25%
to 10 million (and 1999 itself saw an increase of 25% over the
election before that). Once the additional 4 million new voters have
been registered, the increase now would be roughly 40%.

By 2007 or 2008, when the next general election is due to be held,
there should be about 16-17 million registered voters in all. Based
on the normal voter turnout, about 12 million Malaysians -- or about
half of Malaysia’s 25 million population -- would probably come out
to vote.

A 12 million voter turnout is an increase of 50% over the last
general election in 2004 and double the 1999 general election before
that.

The National Registration Department in turn said that 18 million
Malaysians should by now own identity cards known as MyCard. Of
course, not all these 18 million are of voting age (as you need to
apply for an identity card once you reach the age of 12). But they
certainly would be voters two general elections from now (say in
2012-2013) -- and for sure a large percentage would be by the next
general election in 2007 or 2008 (say 16 million or thereabouts).

16 million voters is a lot of voters. Now, let us relate this 16
million to the number of internet users.

There are currently 6 million Malaysians subscribed with the various
internet service providers. About 10% of these are Broadband
subscribers and Broadband subscribers are increasing at the rate of
1,000 per day. With computers nowadays so cheap, plus the campaigns
being conducted by the internet service providers and the cheap
internet access (even for Broadband), it is expected that the number
of internet subscribers will touch 9-10 million by 2007/2008 with
15-20% of them using Broadband. (And note the difference between
'subscribers' and 'users' because there are more users than
subscribers).

9-10 million internet subscribers to 15-16 million registered voters
to a 12-13 million voter turnout -- that is what we should expect to
see come the next election. Of course, not every registered voter
uses the internet and not every internet user is old enough to vote.
There would certainly be some internet users who will not be voting,
or voters who have never touched a computer in their life. What we
need to do now (which the political parties need to do) is to survey
the percentage of overlap. How many voters are also internet users?
Is it 70%? Is it 80%? Whatever it is, it certainly is more than half.

Like it or not, the internet is not only here to stay but the usage
is increasing in leaps and bounds. Political parties had better not
ignore the internet for they do so at their own peril. In fact, 1999
proved that the internet helped the Reformasi Movement to a very
great extent. If the Reformasi Movement had been born a few years
earlier, before the internet age, it would have fizzled out in mere
months.

In the November 1999 general election, the number of internet
subscribers in Malaysia totalled less than 400,000. Now, in just six
years, it is 6 million. Though the number of registered voters since
1999 increased only 66%, the number of internet subscribers has
increased 14 times.

What this means, therefore, is that the medium to reach the majority
of the voters would be the internet. But political parties, in
particular the opposition parties, do not seem to realise this. The
ruling party, of course, does not need the internet too much because
it controls the radio and television stations, which reach the homes
of about 97% of the population -- and every voter listens to the
radio or watches TV. Therefore its message can be delivered directly
to the homes of the voters. But the opposition does not have the
luxury or benefit of radio and TV, so the internet is certainly the
next best thing.

You may argue that the opposition supporters go to ceramahs
(political rallies). Sure, only 3% of the voters do. And only 150,000
or so buy and read opposition publications such as Harakah; even
worse for DAP and keADILan whose party organs sell below break-even
point and can hardly cover their operating cost let alone make any
profit. Anyway, ceramahs and party organs preach to the already
converted so you are not really gaining any new ground here. You need
to reach the uncommitted, the fence-sitters, those still undecided
who to vote for.

But the opposition is not doing this. In fact, the many alternative,
independent or opposition mediums are at war with each other. Take
Malaysia Today as one example. Malaysia Today is viewed by
independent blogs like Jeff Ooi’s Screenshots, Harakah, the party
organ of PAS, Suara Keadilan, Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s official
newspaper, and so on, as the enemy.

Tian Chua, the Information Chief of keADILan, has issued a press
statement distancing the party from Malaysia Today. Zunar, the Editor
of Suara Keadilan, has issued a warning to his journalists to not
cooperate with Malaysia Today; or face sacking if they do. One Suara
Keadilan journalist who persisted in sharing news with Malaysia Today
was forced to resign on 1 January 2006. Malaysia Today is to be
starved of information about the party.

When Anwar Ibrahim threw a Hari Raya party at his home recently for
members of the media, everyone, even those from the mainstream media
who are hostile towards the opposition parties, was invited. Malaysia
Today was not. Malaysia Today is too small and insignificant to be
treated as a serious news organ, never mind that its readership
exceeds that of The News Straits Times and its daily hits far exceed
that of the top blogs in Malaysia.

I have submitted countless articles to Harakah but they refuse to
publish them because I am viewed as critical of the opposition (in
particular of PAS' Islamic State). They will only publish articles
that say nice things about the opposition. Since August 2004, I
stopped sending Harakah any articles and chose instead to start my
own ‘news’ site -- this one called Malaysia Today -- where I am free
to speak my mind and practice freedom of expression which the
opposition screams about but does not allow.

The opposition needs to get its act together. It needs to harness the
power of the internet. It needs to understand that the media war
needs to be coordinated and cooperation is required amongst the many
alternative media channels. Those who speak freely must not be
perceived as the enemy. Freedom of expression is what the opposition
is fighting for and this must include freedom to criticise the
opposition as well, not just freedom to criticise the government.

Malaysia Today is not an opposition organ. It offers the alternative
view. And the alternative view could be that which is against the
government or against the opposition. The government has learnt to
accept this. The opposition is yet to come to terms with this.

Come the next election, the voters will turn to the internet for its
source of alternative views. Unless the opposition realises this,
then it is going to lose the media war. The internet is all that the
opposition has. It did well in 1999 using the power of the internet
though the number of internet users was still very small then. By
2004 though, it lost out in the internet war. It would probably
remain the same come the next election in 2007 or 2008.

The opposition thinks it lost the election because of phantom voters.
Think again. It lost because it went to sleep. And it is still
sleeping till now. And Malaysia Today is here to wake them up --
though the messages in Malaysia Today may not be very pleasant to the
ears.