April 14, 2008
Europe or Eurabia?
by Daniel PipesThe AustralianApril 15,
2008http://www.danielpipes.org/article/5516
The future of Europe is in play. Will it turn into "Eurabia," a part of
the Muslim world? Will it remain the distinct cultural unit it has been
over the last millennium? Or might there be some creative synthesis of
the two civilizations?
The answer has vast importance. Europe may constitute a mere 7 percent of
the world's landmass but for five hundred years, 1450-1950, for good and
ill, it was the global engine of change. How it develops in the future
will affect all humanity, and especially daughter countries such as
Australia which still retain close and important ties to the old
continent.
I foresee potentially one of three paths for Europe: Muslims dominating,
Muslims rejected, or harmonious integration.
(1) Muslim domination strikes some analysts as inevitable. Oriana Fallaci
found that "Europe becomes more and more a province of Islam, a colony of
Islam." Mark Steyn argues that much of the Western world "will not survive
the twenty-first century, and much of it will effectively disappear within
our lifetimes, including many if not most European countries." Such
authors point to three factors leading to Europe's Islamization: faith,
demography, and a sense of heritage.
The secularism that predominates in Europe, especially among its elites,
leads to alienation about the Judeo-Christian tradition, empty church
pews, and a fascination with Islam. In complete contrast, Muslims display
a religious fervor that translates into jihadi sensibility, a supremacism
toward non-Muslims, and an expectation that Europe is waiting for
conversion to Islam.
The contrast in faith also has demographic implications, with Christians
having on average 1.4 children per woman, or about one third less than
the number needed to maintain their population, and Muslims enjoying a
dramatically higher, if falling, fertility rate. Amsterdam and Rotterdam
are expected to be in about 2015 the first large majority-Muslim cities.
Russia could become a Muslim-majority country in 2050. To employ enough
workers to fund existing pension plans, Europe needs millions of
immigrants and these tend to be disproportionately Muslim due to reasons
of proximity, colonial ties, and the turmoil in majority-Muslim
countries.
In addition, many Europeans no longer cherish their history, mores, and
customs. Guilt about fascism, racism, and imperialism leave many with a
sense that their own culture has less value than that of immigrants. Such
self-disdain has direct implications for Muslim immigrants, for if
Europeans shun their own ways, why should immigrants adopt them? When
added to the already-existing Muslim hesitations over much that is
Western, and especially what concerns sexuality, the result are Muslim
populations that strongly resist assimilation.
The logic of this first path leads to Europe ultimately becoming an
extension of North Africa.
(2) But the first path is not inevitable. Indigenous Europeans could
resist it and as they make up 95 percent of the continent's population,
they can at any time reassert control, should they see Muslims posing a
threat to a valued way of life.
This impulse can already be seen at work in the French anti-hijab
legislation or in Geert Wilders' film, Fitna. Anti-immigrant parties gain
in strength; a potential nativist movement is taking shape across Europe,
as political parties opposed to immigration focus increasingly on Islam
and Muslims. These parties include the British National Party, Belgium's
Vlaamse Belang, France's Front National, the Austrian Freedom Party, the
Party for Freedom in the Netherlands, the Danish People's Party, and the
Swedish Democrats.
They will likely continue to grow as immigration surges ever higher, with
mainstream parties paying and expropriating their anti-Islamic message.
Should nationalist parties gain power, they will likely seek to reject
multiculturalism, cut back on immigration, encourage repatriation of
immigrants, support Christian institutions, increase indigenous European
birthrates, and broadly attempt to re-establish traditional ways.
Muslim alarm will likely follow. American author Ralph Peters sketches a
scenario in which "U.S. Navy ships are at anchor and U.S. Marines have
gone ashore at Brest, Bremerhaven or Bari to guarantee the safe
evacuation of Europe's Muslims." Peters concludes that because of
European's "ineradicable viciousness," its Muslims "are living on
borrowed time" As Europeans have "perfected genocide and ethnic
cleansing," Muslims, he predicts, "will be lucky just to be deported,"
rather than killed. Indeed, Muslims worry about just such a fate; since
the 1980s, they have spoken overtly about Muslims being sent to gas
chambers.
Violence by indigenous Europeans cannot be precluded but nationalist
efforts will more likely take place less violently; if any one is likely
to initiate violence, it is the Muslims. They have already engaged in
many acts of violence and seem to be spoiling for more. Surveys indicate,
for instance, that about 5 percent of British Muslims endorse the 7/7
transport bombings. In brief, a European reassertion will likely lead to
on-going civil strife, perhaps a more lethal version of the fall 2005
riots in France.
(3) The ideal outcome has indigenous Europeans and immigrant Muslims
finding a way to live together harmoniously and create a new synthesis. A
1991 study, La France, une chance pour l'Islam (France, an Opportunity for
Islam) by Jeanne-Hיlטne Kaltenbach and Pierre Patrick
Kaltenbach promoted this idealistic approach. Despite all, this optimism
remains the conventional wisdom, as suggested by an Economist leader of
2006 that concluded that dismissed for the moment at least, the prospect
of Eurabia as "scaremongering."
This is the view of most politicians, journalists, and academics but it
has little basis in. Yes indigenous Europeans could yet rediscover their
Christian faith, make more babies, and again cherish their heritage. Yes,
they could encourage non-Muslim immigration and acculturate Muslims
already living in Europe. Yes, Muslim could accept historic Europe. But
not only are such developments not now underway, their prospects are dim.
In particular, young Muslims are cultivating grievances and nursing
ambitions at odds with their neighbors.
One can virtually dismiss from consideration the prospect of Muslims
accepting historic Europe and integrating within it. U.S. columnist
Dennis Prager agrees: "It is difficult to imagine any other future
scenario for Western Europe than its becoming Islamicized or having a
civil war."
But which of those two remaining paths will the continent take?
Forecasting is difficult because crisis has not yet struck. But it may
not be far off. Within a decade perhaps, the continent's evolution will
become clear as the Europe-Muslim relationship takes shape.
The unprecedented nature of Europe's situation also renders a forecast
exceedingly difficult. Never in history has a major civilization
peaceably dissolved, nor has a people ever risen to reclaim its
patrimony. Europe's unique circumstances make them difficult to
comprehend, tempting to overlook, and virtually impossible to predict.
With Europe, we all enter into terra incognita.
Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and Taube/Diller
distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford
University. He is in Australia for the Intelligence Squared debate to
take place this evening in Sydney. This article derives from a talk he
delivered yesterday to the Quadrant.
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